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ON THE AGRICULTURAL front our worst fears seem to be coming true. Besides the substantial decline in food and commercial crops output in the kharif season, when drought hit 14 States, the below-normal precipitation, post-South-West monsoon, threatens to further hurt farm prospects and cut into the rabi season production too. After a healthy 5.7 per cent growth in 2001-02, the agricultural economy appears moving towards the negative growth territory this year. Even the one per cent GDP growth in agriculture, anticipated in the Finance Ministry's Mid-Year Review, is based on the assumption of a mere 10-million-tonne drop in foodgrains output; in reality, the decline is expected to be close to three times that volume.

While the resilience shown by the economy should help lift the gloom, there is a lurking fear that agriculture-related issues may further recede into the background if the positive features are used to mask the real issues. Over 60 per cent of the population derives its livelihood from farm-related activities; and agriculture is the single largest private sector economic activity that ensures growth with equity. Pervasive rural poverty, malnutrition, unemployment and migration to cities are the direct result of agricultural slowdown over the last few years which is explained, at least in part, by the lack of growth-oriented policy support. With the removal of trans-border trade restrictions, Indian agriculture is no more insulated from global influences. It needs to stand up to competition from developed countries whose agricultural subsidies were a whopping $311 billion in 2001.

Indeed, the issues dogging agriculture are well known: Dependence on monsoon, low capital formation, falling public investment, absence of enabling environment to attract large-scale private investment, inadequate rural infrastructure, and weak research and extension. The Centre cannot abdicate its responsibility of ensuring a decent level of farm growth — the National Agriculture Policy envisages four per cent per annum growth rate; but there is as yet no action plan or strategy to achieve the target — on the premise that agriculture is a `State' subject. The least it can do is step up investments to create rural infrastructure, complete a large-number of last-mile irrigation projects, encourage private investment and participation especially in contract farming, re-orient research and extension work to meet the changing needs of the sector and exploit IT capabilities to enable the farmer take an informed decision about production and marketing.

The country has no control over climatic conditions, but it can surely equip itself to meet the rigours of climatic aberrations such as the one this year. We have failed to do that for decades. One can only hope the Government is learning some lessons from the current setback to agriculture, and that the forthcoming Budget will attempt to address the main issues of the farm sector from a long-term perspective.

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